Land transport in Singapore - Bus service

Below is what I propose for improving our public transport infrastructure, especially our bus services.

1. We need to collect analyze human traffic flow data so that LTA knows how to optimize the public transport route.

Before we can seriously improve on our public transport structure, we need data. We need to know how many people are travelling from point A to point B during which time period. Only by comparing these human traffic flows against bus routes can we tell if the bus routes are optimal. And the surprising thing is (surprise because it seemed that no one has mentioned this before) we do have the necessary ingredient to collect these data: Ez-Link card.

Each time a passenger taps his Ez-link card, a computer record is generated and stored in the reader machine. In other words, millions of data points are being generated everyday. Why are we not using them to analyze our traffic flow?

2. We need to overhaul how we plan bus routes.
Armed with these human traffic flow data, the planning of bus routes can be made much more rational. Inefficiency routes can be taken out. Conversely, new rush hour routes can be introduced if the data reveals that a significant traffic flow exists between 2 locations that are not served by direct buses during rush hours.

3. We need to inject competition into bus companies.

We ought to introduce competition into bus services by allowing at least 3 bus companies to operate and compete for routes (More on this later).

4. We need to stop being religious about subsidy.

To the PAP, the word subsidy is a dirty word. It has an almost religious belief that market forces always produce the best outcome. This is intellectual laziness.

The case of bus routes in new town is an example. Normally, the number of bus services in new town is small and grows as the estate matures. Bus companies need to do this or they will incur a loss. But the poor bus services will persuade more people to switch to car! But we all know private transport is much less efficient and less eco-friendly as well. By not wanting to subsidize the less popular lines, the Government creates a bigger problem.

The point is: If we want to take in 6.5 million people, we need a real world class public transport. That means we need to have extensive coverage for all areas, even if meant incurring a loss.

This is how it all fits together.

1. LTA will be the master planner for bus routes.
2. It will be tasked with the collection and analysis of the human traffic flow data and propose new bus routes based on the analysis. It will publish these new bus routes to gather feedback from the public.
3. Once finalized, it will call for tenders for bus routes. This is where the bus companies come in.
4. Winner of a tender shall have the right to operate the bus route at the prevailing bus fare for a fixed number of years (1 . 3 years).
5. The tender will specific where the bus routes will cover as well as the bus frequency schedule. It will also publish projected human flow traffic to enable the bus companies to assess the projected revenue.
6. The bus companies will compete and come back with a tender value. The tender value can be negative if the bus route is expected to make a loss. LTA will collect revenue from popular bus routes while subsidizing less popular ones. Further revenue shortfall will be funded by COE & ERP collections. Car owners should not complain because an improved public transport system will reduce incentive to own a car and result in cheaper COE and ERP in the long run.

By using such a system, LTA will be able to implement a bus system that will closely match travelling pattern. It will also have the ability to lay down top quality bus routes in less populated areas, something it must do if it really wants to choke off demand for cars.

Political Competition

A lot of Singaporeans have the impression that what the SDP is doing is damaging to the country. They cannot see what goodness can come out of breaking the laws in a deliberate manner time and again.

They are misguided. The single biggest problem Singapore is facing now is not ERP, high petrol prices nor any other issues of the day. The single biggest problem Singapore is the absence of political competition.

Many of us know that in economics a monopoly is considered problematic because the lack of competition will enable the monopoly to maximize its profit at the expense of the consumer of that service. Monopolistic behavior in politics exhibits similar damaging outcome.

I will cite just one example to illustrate the impact of politics on your financial well being: Land supply. In Singapore only the Government of Singapore has the ability to inject new supply of land. All other so called major players such as CDL, Capital Land etc buy land from the Government and then resell the land in turn. So the Government effectively controls the overall land supply and hence the land prices over the long term. By applying a long term policy of suppressing land supply, the Government is able to reap enormous profit at the expense of its people. This is a major factor why many of us may not have enough for retirement despite a CPF contribution rate that is probably the highest in the world.

The current Government is able to get away with that precisely because of the lack of political competition. It knows it can get away with it because there is no credible challenge to its power. And that is precisely why the PAP has done what it did since coming onto power some 50 years ago: To eliminate political competition.

Which is what the SDP is countering: To attack the components within the system that is used to suppress political competition. For without political competition, issues such as your CPF money, housing prices, non-transparency of how our nation’s reserve is being managed, ERP, COE, GST, ministerial pay, wealth gap etc will never be resolved.

So support efforts such as what the SDP is doing. It may seem a waste of taxpayer money but compared to the payoff of multi-billions of dollars benefit from a healthy political competition environment, the cost is worth it.